Good news is that the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a preliminary April 2015 job increase of 223,000 net new jobs. Bad news was two-fold. First they cut the preliminary March 2015 number from 126,000 to a miniscule 85,000, the lowest monthly gain since March 2011. Second, while the 223,000 jobs gained in April was a big improvement over March, compared to the 330,000 net new jobs added in April 2014 it was disappointing.
While the monthly ebb and flow of jobs is recognized, the following chart neutralizes that by looking at total job growth in the prior 12 months. Again we have the same two steps forward and one step back. Good news is that the U.S. added three plus million net new jobs in the prior 12 months from the period ending December 2014 through March 2015. That was the first time since May 2000 that the 12-month total U.S. job growth exceeded 3 million on a trailing 12 months basis (TTM). Bad news is that the April 2015 TTM job growth was 2.98 million.
The following graph is the same as the previous, but on a higher resolution commencing January 2011. It more readily shows the declining net 12-month job growth rate seen now the past two months.
The last graph shows the monthly job growth comparisons from 2014 to 2015. While the first two months of 2015 topped the corresponding periods in 2014, the last two months have not performed likewise. Again the two-step one-step.
Other details in the April job release included:
- The number of people unemployed less than 5 weeks rose by 241,000 in April to 2.7 million
- Those unemployed for 27 weeks or more – Long Term Unemployed – make up 29 percent of the unemployed and remained essentially unchanged in April
- Since April 2014, the Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate – the percent of working aged people 16 to 64 that are either employed or searching for a job versus those no longer searching for a job – has oscillated in a narrow band from 62.7 to 62.9 percent, hitting the middle in April 2015 at 62.8 percent. In comparison, this percentage hit 66.4 percent in January 2007 which equates to an increase since then of more than 8.1 million people that effectively are unemployed and are no longer looking for a job. If these people were counted as unemployed, rather than a reported 5.4 percent unemployment rate it would indicate 10.6 percent
- People employed part-time that prefer full-time employment – known as Part-Time for Economic Reasons – total 6.6 million, though unchanged in April are off 880,000 from a year ago
- Those that are no longer in the labor force but have looked for a job in the prior 12 months but not in the last four weeks – referred to as Marginally Attached to the Labor Force – were again flat in April but totaled 2.1 million
- In addition 756,000 in total were classified as Discouraged Workers in April, little changed from a year ago. This group is not currently looking for a job as they believe there are no jobs for them
- Professional and Business Services added 62,000 positions in April, averaging 35,000 per month in the past three months
- Health care grew by 45,000 in April and 390,000 in the past 12 months
- Construction employment grew 45,000 jobs in April and 280,000 jobs in the past year
- Mining employment, which includes oil and gas extraction and drilling, saw 15,000 jobs go away in April and 49,000 lost jobs year-to-date
- Average hourly earnings rose 3 cents in April, up 2.2 percent in the past 12 months
It could be better and it could be worse. Hence the two-steps forward and one-step back moniker. I guess we just dance in May and see what happens in the next jobs report in June.
Ted