The U.S. created 228,000 net new jobs (preliminary) in November 2017 as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 9 percent more than the 200,000 consensus among economists according to MarketWatch.
The net gain in jobs totaled 2.071 million in the prior 12-months. Total net job gains in the prior 12-months still significantly trails the 3.129 million level seen in February 2015, as shown in the graph. Part of the lower can be attributed to the dearth of skilled people to hire with the unemployment rate at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent.
The U.S. has now increased the total number of jobs 86 consecutive months on a seasonally adjusted basis. From the pre-recession peak in January 2008, total job loss was 8.697 million to the February 2010 trough. Since then, the U.S. has created 17.508 million net new jobs.
Employment in the Leisure and Hospitality sector is an excellent proxy of the overall health index of the U.S. economy. People do not spend money on vacations, cruises, entertainment spas or dinners out unless they feel good about the future economy. My premise is that the U.S. economic outlook is healthy as long as the employment growth rate in Leisure and Hospitality exceeds that of the country overall. Current Leisure and Hospitality job growth in the prior 12 months was 1.77 percent versus 1.43 percent for the total economy. I see no recession on the horizon at this time foregoing unanticipated economic shocks. Note that Leisure and Hospitality employment dipped in September 2017. This was not, however, an indicator of a pending recession, but rather a function of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Hurricane Irma literally shut down that industry in Florida for two weeks or more in September.
Average hourly earnings, up 5 cents per hour in November 2017, increased 64 cents in the past 12-months, a gain of 2.5 percent. Hourly earnings monthly since 2012 are shown in the following graph.
Other items in the November 2017 jobs report:
- Number of Persons Unemployed for Less Than 5 Weeks increased by 121,000 from October to 2.250 million
- Long-Term Unemployed (jobless for 27 or more weeks), now at 1.581 million, was down 40,000 from October 2017 and down 275,000 from a year ago
- Civilian Labor Force Participation Rateis now 62.7 percent, essentially unchanged from a year ago (62.6 percent)
- Employment-Population Ratiois now 60.1 percent versus 59.7 percent a year ago – the bigger the better
- Number of Persons Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons(also known as involuntary part-time workers) are individuals desiring full-time employment but either had their hours cut back or cannot find a full-time job), increased by 48,000 from October to November, but is down 858,000 from a year ago to 4.801 million
- Marginally Attached to the Labor Force(not currently counted in the labor force, want and are available for work and had looked for a job in the prior 12 months) dropped by 451,000 in the past year to 1.481 million. Within that group, 469,000 were classified as Discouraged Workers – persons not currently looking for work because they believe there are no jobs available for them. Discouraged Workers have shrunk by 122,000 in the past 12 months
- Manufacturing added 31,000 net new jobs in November 2017 and 189,000 new jobs in the latest 12-months
- Health Care gained 30,000 jobs in November
- Construction added 23,000 jobs in November and 132,000 in the latest 12 months
- Leisure and Hospitality jobs increased by 18,000 jobs in November and were up by 279,000 in the past 12-months
To read the entire BLS release along with detailed tables click https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
The U.S. economy continues to improve.
Ted